Polemik Subsidi BBM

*this article is written as a joint project of Himiespa’s Intellectual and External division

*written by M. Alif Timur Ghifari and Nadia Fitriani

 

Beberapa minggu ini, kerap terjadi demonstrasi-demonstrasi yang bertujuan untuk menolak wacana kenaikan BBM per satu April. Mulai dari union buruh sampai mahasiswa turun ke jalanan untuk menyuarakan pendapat. Mereka sepakat bahwa kenaikan BBM akan berdampak buruk pada rakyat kecil.  Menurut mereka, wacana tersebut harus digagalkan. Melalui tulisan ini, kami dari Himiespa mencoba untuk menjelaskan latar belakang terjadinya permasalahan ini, serta mengapa tidak terjadinya pengurangan subsidi bbm berpotensi buruk bagi negara.

 

Katalis harga minyak dunia : Produksi yang tidak bertambah serta situasi panas di Iran

Untuk mengerti dengan detail sebuah masalah, kita harus mengerti juga apa yang menyebabkan masalah tersebut. Berdasarkan data yang kami peroleh dari US Energy Information Administration (EIA-red), dari tahun 1983 sampai tahun 2005, suplai minyak dunia naik sebesar 1.64% per tahun. Jika trend tersebut terus berlanjut, tahun ini suplai minyak dunia seharusnya bertambah sebanyak 5 juta barel per hari. Namun, sejak tahun 2005, produksi minyak cenderung stabil, sehingga tidak ada kenaikan produksi yang signifikan.

 

Di saat yang sama, pemberian sanksi oleh Amerika terhadap Iran telah menyulitkan Iran untuk mengimpor BBM serta mengekspor minyak mereka. Menyikapi sanksi ini, Iran mengancam akan menutup Selat Hormuz, dimana sekitar 17 juta barel minyak lewat setiap hari. Hal ini menimbulkan atmosfir yang panas di kawasan Timur Tengah. Selain itu, dunia berpotensi kehilangan produksi minyak  dari Iran sebesar 2.4 juta barel tiap harinya. Lantas bagaimana dengan produksi minyak dari Indonesia?

 

Indonesia sendiri telah menjadi negara net importer minyak sejak tahun 2004. Hal ini disebabkan oleh penurunan produksi akibat turunnya tingkat produksi di ladang-ladang minyak yang sudah tua sementara proyek-proyek baru gagal untuk menggantikan peran mereka. Hal ini bersamaan dengan naiknya tingkat konsumsi BBM di Indonesia yang turut diakibatkan oleh pertumbuhan jumlah kendaraan sehingga terjadi disparitas antara suplai dan konsumsi. Saat ini, kandungan minyak bumi di Indonesia yang telah terbukti hanya sebesar 0.3% dari kandungan minyak bumi dunia. Sehingga sebagai importer minyak, Indonesia sangat rentan terhadap volatilitas pasar minyak.

 

Dengan tidak naiknya tingkat produksi minyak yang dibarengi oleh naiknya tingkat konsumsi minyak, risiko akan berkurangnya produksi minyak dunia telah menyebabkan lonjakan harga minyak dunia secara signifikan.

 

Efek kenaikan harga minyak terhadap APBN

Dengan naiknya harga minyak dunia, pembeli BBM di negara negara yang menerapkan sistem floating harga penjualan bbm terkena dampak langsung, termasuk Indonesia, dimana harga pertamax mengalami kenaikan sesuai dengan market prices. Namun, selain pertamax, Indonesia juga menjual tipe BBM yang lain, yaitu premium dan solar. Untuk dua tipe BBM diatas, pemerintah memberikan subsidi sehingga mereka dijual kepada masyarakat dengan harga di bawah harga keekonomisan. Hal inilah yang mengakibatkan kenaikan harga minyak berdampak langsung bagi pemerintah.

 

Saat ini, harga keekonomisan bahan bakar minyak bertipe premium mencapai 8400/ liter dikarenakan harga minyak dunia yang tinggi. Terjadi penambahan penganggaran subsidi oleh pemerintah untuk mempertahankan harga premium pada titik Rp 4.500,00/liter. Sehingga subsidi yang harus dikeluarkan pemerintah dianggarkan sebesar Rp 185,4 triliun di RAPN 2012. Ini jumlah yang terlampau besar, sehingga pemerintah mengusulkan pengurangan subsidi sebesar Rp 1.500,00/liter yang akan mengurangi penganggaran subsidi di RAPBN 2012 menjadi Rp 137,4 triliun.

 

Subsidi BBM di Indonesia secara garis besar mengikuti trend harga minyak dunia yang cenderung meningkat setiap tahun. Di mana pada tahun 2008, subsidi BBM mencapai Rp 139,106 triliun. Lalu tahun 2009 sempat turun hingga Rp 45,039 triliun. Pada tahun 2010, tejadi kenaikan subsidi BBM menjadi Rp 82,351 triliun dan pada tahun 2011, subsidi BBM meningkat lagi menjadi Rp 129,723 triliun. Dengan harga minyak yang terus naik diimbangi dengan harga penjualan yang tidak naik, bukan tidak mungkin subsidi BBM tahun 2012 melebihi angka Rp 185,400 triliun.

 

Opportunity Cost Subsidi BBM

Dalam ilmu ekonomi, kita mengenal sebuah prinsip yang sangat penting yaitu opportunity cost. Prinsip ini menyatakan bahwa ketika menghadapi berbagai macam pilihan, cost sebuah pilihan adalah pilihan-pilihan lain yang tidak dipilih. Hal ini berbeda dengan accounting cost, yang berupa cost riil dari sebuah pilihan. Setiap tindakan memilih, nyatanya, tidak akan luput dari prinsip opportunity cost, baik disadari maupun tidak.

 

Dalam hal pemberian subsidi BBM, pemerintah juga menghadapi pilihan, apakah akan tetap menanggung subsidi yang besarnya dapat semakin menggelembung, atau menguranginya agar APBN tetap sehat. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah menghadapi trade-off.

 

Nyatanya, pemerintah telah mengambil pilihan untuk tidak mengurangi subsidi sampai enam bulan ke depan, sehingga harga BBM tetap akan dijual kepada masyarakat dengan harga sebelumnya, yakni Rp4.500,00 per liter. Lalu opportunity cost seperti apa yang dibayar pemerintah karena mengambil pilihan ini? Jawabannya jelas, pemerintah harus mengorbankan anggaran yang seharusnya dapat dialokasikan untuk sektor-sektor lain.

 

Seperti yang telah dikemukakan di atas, subsidi BBM pada tahun ini diperkirakan akan membengkak. Subsidi tersebut sejatinya dapat digunakan untuk membangun satu buah Jembatan Selat Sunda dan 18 buah Jembatan Suramadu (Surabaya Madura).  Pembangunan infrastruktur seperti ini tentu jauh lebih bermanfaat dalam jangka panjang. Jembatan dapat menghubungkan dua daerah yang sebelumnya terpisah, memacu perekonomian kedua daerah tersebut dengan biaya yang lebih murah. Sementara subsidi BBM akan habis seiring dengan habisnya bahan bakar tersebut.

 

Namun tidak bisa dipungkiri, apabila pemerintah melakukan penghematan anggaran dengan menaikkan harga BBM, masyarakat menengah ke bawah akan terkena imbas karena terkereknya harga bahan-bahan kebutuhan pokok. Tetapi apabila harga BBM tidak dinaikkan, seperti keputusan yang diambil saat ini, maka harus ada spending cuts yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah untuk menghemat anggaran. Penghematan anggaran sendiri akan berdampak signifikan pada pembelanjaan-pembelanjaan yang dapat dilakukan negara. Selain itu, ketika surplus budget negara berkurang, maka national saving akan berkurang, interest rate akan naik, dan investasi akan turun. Hal ini akan mengurangi growth ekonomi negara dalam jangka panjang (Mankiw, 2012).

 

Hal yang juga jarang disadari oleh masyarakat adalah bahwa adanya subsidi terhadap finite energy seperti BBM telah mengakibatkan berkurangnya insentif untuk mencari alternatif energy yang bersifat renewable. Masyarakat seakan dimanjakan oleh harga BBM yang murah, sehingga pilihan renewable energy yang cenderung lebih mahal tidak menarik di mata masyarakat. Hal ini berdampak buruk dalam jangka panjang karena suplai finite energy akan terus berkurang dan suatu saat akan habis, sehingga perlu adanya diversifikasi energy.

 

Maka dapat dilihat bahwa kedua pilihan mengandung opportunity cost yang sama-sama menyentil kesejahteraan rakyat. Pemerintah telah mengambil pilihan untuk tidak menaikkan harga BBM. Otomatis pengorbanan anggaran untuk sektor-sektor penting lain harus dilakukan. Ternyata, membakar habis uang untuk berliter-liter bahan bakar non renewable sekarang masih dirasa lebih penting daripada menginvestasikan sebagian uang tersebut untuk perbaikan infrastruktur, pelayanan kesehatan, dan juga pemerataan pendidikan yang bermanfaat untuk puluhan tahun ke depan.

 

Akhir Polemik?

Dengan tidak berkurangnya subsidi BBM per 1 April 2012, maka dapat dipastikan bahwa pemerintah harus melakukan spending cuts secara besar besaran untuk dapat menanggung beban subsidi. Maka anggaran untuk beberapa sektor pun harus dikorbankan untuk menopang kepentingan jangka pendek rakyat Indonesia. Akan sangat disayangkan jika generasi Indonesia di masa mendatang tidak mendapatkan pendidikan, layanan kesehatan, serta infrastruktur yang memadai akibat kebijakan ini.

 

Ke depannya, pemerintah diharapkan lebih cepat dalam mengambil keputusan. Berlarut larutnya proses decision making telah menimbulkan ketidakpastian. Hal ini menyebabkan tindakan-tindakan spekulatif yang berdampak buruk bagi masyarakat. Selain itu, ekspektasi akan inflasi dapat memicu datangnya inflasi itu sendiri, sehingga ketidakpastian yang berlarut larut tersebut turut mendongkrak kenaikan harga. Dikhawatirkan ketika beberapa bulan ke depan isu kenaikan bbm muncul lagi, jika tidak ditangani dengan cepat, akan berpotensi menganggu jalannya perekonomian Indonesia. (MATG/NF)

Midnight Madness

Tonight, I found myself slumping against a chair at one of Yogyakarta’s train station, Tugu, to be precise. It’s peaceful and quiet here, the silence only broken by the occasional whispering or two by to-be passengers like myself. Each waiting for their train, grasping a piece paper that is literally their ticket out of this city.

To be honest, this is the first time I’ve been at a station this late. When I arrived at about 10, this place was brimming with people. Slowly but surely though, they thinned out as trains goes through the station, collecting and dropping people at the same time. Watching it all, it vibrates a unique feeling in you. A feeling that you’re being left behind by all those people. Off to their respective destinations. It’s true that I do not know any of them, and yet, I can’t shake off that imposing feeling.

I wonder how that feels for the people who works at the station. Watching people come and go day after day, it should be unsettling no?

Well, maybe not. . .

A Confession Of Some Sorts

I yearn to be a writer.

I have learned early on in my life to be a reader, I instilled the urge to read read and read whenever possible, and that, in part, is possible thanks to a lot of people, such as my mom, who ever so carefully, would let me read her collection,which consisted of the likes of Tom Clancy, Sidney Sheldon, Paulo Coelho, Ken Follet, Jeffrey Archer, and so on. My teachers, Mr.C and Mrs.Ashour, deserves some plaudits too by introducing me to the likes of Eoin Colfer, Garth Nix, D.J. MacHale and so on. In short, my only problem with books is that it felt awfully hard to put one down before finishing the story, and that, was that.

Or so I thought

After reading hundreds and hundreds of books, it occurred to me, that I was not entirely satisfied living out someone’s world, I wanted to create my own world, I wanted to write. And I did. But my works was a far cry from the ones I cherished, and part of the blame lies in me. I had tons and tons of ideas that I would try to cram into my writings, and in the end, it would look disheveled, unorganized, and somewhat ngelantur.

That’s why I made blogs, to try and structure my writings, in the hope that after times and times of practice, I would instinctively get better and better. Now looking back at my first few post on my other blogs, I can’t really say I did get better. So what went wrong?

After viewing my blogs, I finally came to the conclusion that 1. I hardly wrote, and 2. I was writing for writing’s sake. I wrote, because I forced myself to write, and not because I wanted to write. And it showed in my writing. My words felt horribly flat, the contents unimaginative, and it all felt a bit too forced. I knew I needed to turn this around. I needed to inject some fresh ideas, some form of life in my writings. And to do that, I figured I needed to do two things to kick start my writings again.

The first thing is, be curious, be critical, I have to be observant to the going-ons around me. I have to ask questions of the world that inspires more questions, I have to perceive things from different perspectives. It might seem a bit philosophical, but that’s what  ideas of good articles, or in this case, posts, are made of.

The second thing to do is to actually put those idea into words, as written on Lectures and Literatures

The pages are still blank, but there is a miraculous feeling of the words all being there, written in invisible ink and clamoring to become visible.

-Vladimir Nabokov

What I need to do is to make those invisible ink visible, many great ideas fell victim to laziness, or perhaps, lack of time and energy to do the proper research. I have to avoid those hurdles if I want to get better.

Wish me luck eh?

College Values

These last couple days, I’ve been sick.

I guess it was coming really, lately I’ve been working on a project at campus, which is draining a lot of my time as well as energy. Though, that is to be expected and I am quite happy working on this project, very excited even. The problem is the weather, well, that and my value of living the college life the way it is supposed to be lived (trademarked and all).

First, let’s talk about the weather

It sucked. the end.

No seriously, when it rains, it pours. I felt this city has become a place for the gods to vent their anger upon. Massive storms come one after the other in a bid to try to test the city’s defenses. But these wouldn’t matter a bit if it wasn’t for the second factor.

Living the college life the way it is supposed to be lived (trademarked and all).

See, ever since I was a little kid, my mom and dad would tell stories about their lives and experiences, and they would also impart some wisdom from those stories to me. From those stories I learned about the world and how to face it, and those stories are what shaped my way of thinking, and my way of perceiving the world.

In those stories, I would often hear about their college life, and how hard it was back then for them. My dad couldn’t afford to live in a ‘kos’ or flat because it was simply too expensive, so he lived in his province’s dorm while studying, which charges low rents at that time (now they charge Rp. 32.000 a month). He also told me that sometimes he couldn’t pay for food, and had to ask for a loan from the ‘warung’ or food vendor, so that he could pay it later. It wasn’t just him that does that, other students also do that. You see, when he was in college, there was no atm. To transfer money, you would have to go to a post office and be stuck in a long and arduous process. My dad gets his allowance once a month, so he had to be very careful with his spending, because no one could bail him out if he ran out of money. And because of that, he lived a simple life with no distractions.

My mom wasn’t better off either. She had a knack for languages though, and that helped her land a job as an english tutor at an english course. The money she generated from that helped her live a somewhat better life, but she still had to be careful with her expenses, and generally lived frugally, as students should do.

Their stories, which was told time and time and time again, shaped my views on how college life should be. In my views, it should be a life of simplicity, as we are still students, still in need of our parents (even though we sometimes pretend otherwise). And what good would it do to flaunt the wealth of our parents when we all know that what matters is our grades. And that brings us to the reason of me being sick. You see, I wanted to handicap myself by forcing myself to walk to campus, or at least ride my bike. I felt that if I didn’t do that, I would rob myself of all those hardships I imagined college to be, that I imagined I would go through (even though walking to campus seems to be the norm here and does not exactly constitute as hardship). Hardships may seem hard at first, but when you’ve managed to go through it, you’ll be able to look back and smile at the world, proud of not only your achievements, but how you achieved them, which I feel is more important. I’ve always thought, that because college grads are morally indebted to the nation for the privilege of enjoying a higher form of education, that we should give something back to the country. But how can we give back to the country if we do not understand what the country is going through, how folks perceive the country? People say that our country is a developing country, still riddled with problems on poverty, health, and much more. And yet how could we declare war against poverty when we’ve never experienced it? When we have no idea of what it felt like to walk all day in the hot sun? When we have never ate the likes of nasi aking just to survive? When we’ve always lived comfortably in our own little world without problems.

That’s why I feel, that to understand something, you must go through it. And that’s why I felt that to help understand my country, I have to get out of my comfort zone and in my own way, suffer through it. And that, my friend, is why I found myself riding a bike through a stormy, gusty rain. Without the protection of a car or a motorcycle, my bike was battered and bruised by the rain. My whole body was soaked and I was shivering by the time I got to my kos, in the end I managed to catch a fever that day, which sucked. Still though, I have to admit that being caught in the middle of a grade three storm was fun, and somewhat exciting. C’est la vie mes amis.

Man

Last Saturday, me and my mates from Gadjah Mada went to Kaliurang for a two day event called Makrab (Malam Keakraban or the “Get to know each other night”). The point of this event is to introduce all those who major in economics this year to our seniors. It felt somewhat like a frat party, and needless to say, it was awesome. We hiked, sang around the campfire, danced to the beat, played games, watched football, shared jokes, and in some cases, flirted with one another.

So afterwards, on Sunday afternoon, we all went back to Jogja. We commandeered three buses to take us there. Along the way, some of my mates disembarked first because the bus passed their “flat” (and I’m using this word loosely). The unlucky ones, such as yours truly, got dropped off at UGM, at the Psychology roundabout.

After bidding my friends goodbye, I shouldered my backpack and, carrying my shoe-bag in one hand and a plastic bag full of dirty laundry in another, started walking west, through Jl. Sosio Humaniora. It was a bit packed, lots of motorcycles buzzing around. To make things clearer, the Psychology roundabout was located at the easternmost point of UGM, while my place was located just west of the campus. There is a one way road, Jl. Sosio Humaniora, that connects the psychology roundabout to the main road of UGM and that in turn, would lead me to the junction between Jl. Kaliurang and Jl. Bhinneka Tunggal Ika. And because it was Sunday, the entrance to the main road from Jl. Sosio Humaniora was closed.

“Perfect” I grumbled as motorcycles stopped at the gate and turned back, I didn’t have a motorcycle, so going around was out of the question, it was simply too far, and at that point I was somewhat knackered. And so after weighing up my options, I decided to “screw it” and climb the gate. As I scrambled up the gate, I was somewhat relieved that I didn’t have a motorcycle. Had I had one, I wouldn’t be able to get through the gate and would’ve had been forced to take a detour. And at that moment, nestling on top of the gate, I had a eureka moment and came to the conclusion that Man, whatever obstacles they face, has the tools and potentials to break through it, or in my case, rise above it. And therein lies the ingenuity of Man.

I jumped down, dusted myself and started walking toward the sunset.

The Italian Job

I spent my weekend at Surabaya this week. I just felt like I had to get away from all the hubbub in Jogja. Some may call it a bout of homesickness, but as much as I enjoyed seeing the city again after a month or so of relocation, I don’t think this particular escapade could be constituted as a bout of homesickness. More like a need to freshen up the scenery and relax a bit. And so on friday night, me and my family went out to Tunjungan Plaza to eat. Looking back, what I ate there was a far cry from my culinary experience in Jogja, and I had some smiles to myself as I considered that particular point. From there, we went around Sogo, and finally, at about 8 p.m. We decided to call it a day and go home.

The car was parked in the valet parking spot, which is located about a hundred yard or so from Sogo’s lower ground entrance. That particular floor hosted bags and watches from lots of well known designer, so men being men, me and my dad decided to get out early while my mom and sister looked through some watches. Now I should explain that between the entrance and the parking spot, there is a taxi pool that hosts about four to five taxi at a time. While waiting for the women to catch up, we stood around the entrance, a few yards away from the taxi pool. As we loitered around, I saw a couple approach a taxi driver and started yammering away in a heavily accented english. The taxi driver seemed to understand bits and pieces, nodding furiously at times, but the guy was struggling to get his point through. Then the magic word appeared, he shouted Jogjakarta a few times, coupled with the word trains. At that point, I felt like I should help them out, but was stopped back by my uneasiness to intrude. My dad has no such qualms, and decided to proceed there to try to help them out. Next thing I knew, I was shaking hands with Mirko and Gloria, a couple from Italy.

Now at this time, I should tell you that my knowledge of Italy largely comes from reading Mario Puzo’s Mafia Novels, and John Grisham’s Playing for Pizza novel (although The Broker had some italian background in it as well). Mirko seemed nice enough (obviously not from Sicily). He was on a trip with his girl, spanning several countries and a few continents, and told me that he wanted the taxi driver to take him to Mt.Bromo on Saturday and be back in Surabaya on Sunday to catch the Sancaka train to Jogjakarta. I duly translated this for the taxi driver, who then proceeds to tell me his exorbitant price. At that point my mom came and after knowing the situation, bargained and helped get them a better deal. The proceeds took about ten minutes, and a lot of exclamation on Mirko’s part (his pronunciation of fantastic is simply, fantastic) but in the end, it was settled. We got the message across the taxi driver, and gave some advice to Mirko about where to stay in Bromo. He was very thankful afterwards and told us so. We parted ways after that.

In the car, I reflected on my actions. Had we not try to help them, there’s no telling what would happen and that fact, the fact that I made a difference to a stranger, was a somewhat glowing feeling. Added to that was the fact that the stranger knew that you made a difference, well, it was a wonderful feeling. I thought about doctors then and how lucky they were to be able to help people directly, and see the difference they’ve made to the world (I’m sure the pro bono doctors sees this and feels this way every day, that’s why they do what they do). And then I examined my own profession. By nature, I am somewhat cynical, and it’s easy to imagine a situation where policymakers, let’s say the government, in this case the Federal Reserve Bank, decided to raise the Discount rate, that is the interest rate the central bank charges to other bank that borrows money, and because of that decision, every business and households in the country would have less disposable income to spend. Prices would increase on every consumer item, making people mad. And yet, raising the interest rates would mean that, at the margin, people would borrow less, which would control the amount of money in circulation, which would lessen the buying pressure, which would cause prices to stabilize, more or less. And that controls the inflation rate. But they would still get some stick for the rise of prices and the real danger that was thwarted, inflation, would not come under the spotlight. It is as they say, a thankless job. But one that still needs doing. And who else would do it?

That imagery was a bit depressing, and yet, after some afterthought, I felt that the knowledge that we are actually contributing to the world is more important to ourselves than the acknowledgement from other people. Yes it is nice to be acknowledged, but that is a logical result of our own contribution and not something that we should strive on. And who would have thought that an Italian guy would help me realize this?

To New Beginnings

To new beginnings, as I wrote these words down, I am somewhat reminded of the fact that this was the title of 90210′s first episode in their second season. I’m not sure why I thought of that, I just did. For those of you who had watched the episode, and the whole series, well, jokes on you then my friend for wasting so much time watching that kind of series. Just kidding, anyway, this post won’t be as dramatic as the episode, so no, I haven’t just killed someone after being humiliated in front of the whole school (what was that all about?).

The new beginning I’m talking about here is not the making of this blog either, thought it was the result of my New Beginning. No, the new beginning I’m talking about is an evolution, from a high school student, still leaning heavily on his parents, to that of a freshman, starting to see the world for what it truly is and facing it all alone. I guess, you can use the butterfly analogy, in which the butterfly leaves the cocoon and spread her wings to explore the world (though in my view, my new beginning isn’t that sinister).

Along the way, there will be hardship, there will be problems to solve, there will be times when my resolve will be tested to the absolute limits, times when I’ll probably not eat because of lack of money, but I know that all those are necessary to build the characters of a man, that living alone, and living frugally, will toughen you up. It will make you, to borrow the Indonesian paraphrase, mandiri. Do you need to live alone to achieve that? Well, no. But this sure as hell speeds up the process. And I’m looking forward to it.

It’s not all doom and gloom though, there will be adventures ahead, new places to be discovered, cuisines to be tasted, friends to be made, grades to be achieved and much more. This is a new land, and like Christopher Columbus all those years ago, I intend to make my mark on it. To New Beginnings!